Good morning. I'm Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft, and thanks for joining me for what I hope will be a conversation for all of us, albeit virtually as part of this year's CES.
For so many years, CES has really played a remarkable role in bringing us all together, and showing the world where technology is going, showing people literally the future.
Well, this year, I'd like to use my time to have a conversation about where technology is going, but also talk about what it means for all of us in the industry. What it means when we think about the promise of technology and the perils as well. And perhaps most importantly the responsibilities that it will mean we all need to work together to address.
It's amazing to me when I look back at the history of CES. The very first one was in 1967. It was I New York. There were only 14 exhibitors. But last year in Las Vegas, there were more than 4,000 exhibitors and more remarkably still, there were more than 170,000 people who attended. Let's hope that this year with this virtual format, we can reach even more people and connect together. But it's not just about the connections that gives us the opportunity to make. It's about the role that CES has always played at the cutting edge of technology. In the 1970's CES literally introduced the world the new consumer device, it was called the VCR. And then in the 1980's it did the same thing with the camcorder, and in the 1990's it was the DVD. And in 2001, all of us at Microsoft were proud because it was at CES, where we had the opportunity to show to the world our new device called the Xbox.
For 11 years, Bill Gates came and represented Microsoft and gave our keynote. And it's interesting when I look back about what Bill spoke about when he was here. In so many ways, it was about technology getting not just more powerful, but smaller as well. Think about the phone that we carry in our pocket today, a phone that couldn't possibly have fit in somebody's pocket when it was first invented. But sometimes technology gets bigger as well. Think about the screens for our TVs on our walls on our homes today. And think about how much bigger they are than when CES was born. And that in a way is what Bill talk about in 2008. Because in his last keynote he talked about the cloud.
The cloud is so big that I couldn't possibly show it to you on a stage, but what I can do is take you to the could itself. Because two years after Bill's last keynote, we started construction and have built ever since on literally the infrastructure that supports every aspect of consumer electronics and technology.
Let me share with you a glimpse inside some of our data centers, in this case in Quincy, Washington in the United States.
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(3:21) The view may be generic, but this is actually one of my favorite places in the world. Why? Well, I think it represents the most important infrastructure of the 21st century. This is a part of Microsoft's Columbia data center campuses. These house the computers that fuel our lives. There are more than 20 buildings. Each large enough to house two commercial aircraft. They fill two million square feet. They're spread out over 300 acres. But what's really interesting is what's inside.
It's something that almost no one ever gets to go see. But come with me. It's COVID times, I need to wear my mask, but I'll show you around.
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Well, as we walk around, first, I've just spared you, not just a metal detector, but what is probably the longest and most substantial security checkpoint you'll ever find on planet Earth. But what is so interesting to me, is what you see here. This is just a glimpse of the types of server computers that we find in room after room, and building after building on these campuses. There are almost half a million of these server computers. They store as much data as you would find in more than 50,000 libraries of Congress. And I think that captures so well how this really is the infrastructure for almost everything that we're engaged in today. The way you live your life, the way you do your work, the way research and development are all moving forward. It all relies on this enormous amount of data and this enormous amount of computing power. So you just see here, so much innovation, all connecting together. But actually, that's not the end of the story, come back outside and I'll show you one more really interesting piece.
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These campuses represent not only the most advanced digital infrastructure in the world, but some of the most advanced energy infrastructure as well. Why? Well, first, if we ever lose power from the electrical grid, we need to keep the computers running. There are more than 19,000 battery cells, each like the battery under the hood of your car, that will do just that. And at the same time that happens, these big electrical generators will start operating as well. In fact there's more than 140 of these generators on these campuses. Each of these will power the equivalent of 3,000 homes.
The good news is with this latest advances in emissions technology they actually give out less emission than a typical lawnmower you might use in your backyard. Each today runs on diesel fuel. In fact there are tens of thousands of gallons of diesel fuel stored here. But not 10 years from now, we've said that by the end of this decade, each one of these needs to go. They'll be replaced by either new generators that run on hydrogen power or new advanced fuel cells. And in that, you see this extraordinary intersection between digital technology, energy technology, environmental science and the need for innovation. This, in so many ways, is the physical embodiment of our mission, to empower every person and every organization on the planet to achieve more.
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One of the most remarkable things about that video, I think, is that's just a slice of Microsoft's data center presence around the world, as Microsoft Azure is bringing more data centers to more countries each quarter.
But there's a darker side as well, because even as computing creates all of this promise, there are new perils arising as well. And governments, quite rightly, increasingly are asking us as an industry not only what they think they should do, but what they expect us to do too.
The issues are critical. They span privacy and cybersecurity, digital safety and sometimes just the loss of control that people or communities or countries may feel they face. Think about the recent holiday season. It was dominated not just by COVID and Christmas, but by cybersecurity issues as well.
(8:33) We all learned about the first victim a company called SolarWinds(詳しくは、基礎知識参照), and how that attack spread from one company to other companies and to governments and other nations around the world.
And here too, I think there are some important insights that we can draw from the history of our industry and the issues that have emerged. Because as our industry was maturing initially in the 1980's, cybersecurity first burst onto the scene as well. Interestingly, it was first an issue that people thought about as something likely to involve a teenager in a bedroom.
（9:11） And for good reason, literally, that was the first image that people saw. Because in the 1980's, the world was asking a question, it was a question that had learned about from the movies. The question was... "Shall we play a game?"
But as people were drawn in by this question, it opened their eyes to the breadth of what the future would bring. And among the people who saw the movie and asked that question, was the president of the United States. It was on a Friday afternoon in 1983 that President Ronald Reagan helicoptered to Camp David, on his mind, in his briefing book was a set of issues around international relations in a particular nation state. But little did he expect, as he sat down to watch an evening movie that the issues would become even bigger than he thought. Take a look.
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- At about 3:30 on Friday afternoon, the helicopter would come into the White House south grounds. The Reagans would get to Camp David about 45 minutes later. And then on Friday night, the Reagans would show a movie in their cabin, and they had a lot of friends who recommended what the popular movies of the time were, "WarGames" was one.
- Shall we play a game?
- How about global thermonuclear war?
- The magnitude of the event that it portrayed was such that no one knew what to say and finally Mrs. Reagan said, "Well, could that really happen?". This was at the height of the time that President Reagan was working hard, with Mikhail Gorbachev to reduce nuclear weapons, which he thought threatened the very existence of mankind.
- The following Wednesday, there was a big meeting to discuss a nuclear missile and some arms talks with the Russians. And in the middle, Ronald Reagan puts down his index cards and he says. "Has anyone seen this movie, 'WarGames'?" And then he turns to General John Vessey, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and says, "General, could something like this really happen? Could, you know, just anybody hack into our most secure computer?" And he says, "Mr. President, the problem is much worse than you think." This led to the first National Security Decision Directive on computer security. That movie planted a seed that led to an awareness and a program to get on top of things.
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We live in a time when in so many ways science is now caught up with science fiction. And I think it offers a couple of interesting and important insights for all of us to consider. In so many ways, "WarGames" was important not just because it showed engineers what computers could do, but it showed all of us and people in government the problems we would need to work together to solve. It literally changed the arc of work needed to protect the country and the world.
It's a powerful remind that we constantly need to keep learning, we constantly need to keep imagining what comes next. And in this instance, in the year 2021, it's not a movie that we're learning from, it's real life. And real life of the past month and the attacks that we've had to address, I think are of critical importance.
In some ways, I think it really speaks to us in two very critical ways. First, what are the rules of the road that are gonna guide us all as a planet? And second, what does it mean for us as an industry in terms of what need to do?
The issues around the rules of the road in my view couldn't be more important. Because let's consider what we've seen with the SolarWinds based attack.
Governments have spied on each other for centuries, it would be naive to think or even ask them to stop. But we've long lived in a world where there were norms and rules that created expectations about what was appropriate and what was not. And what what happened with SolarWinds was not. Why? Because this wasn't the case of one nation simply trying to spy on or hack its way into a computer network of another, it was a mass indiscriminate global assault on the technology supply chain that all of us are responsible for protecting.
It represented a vector of attack that first distributed roughly 18,000 packages of malware on organizational networks, literally around the world.
It is a danger that the world cannot afford.
We saw this in Ukraine over the last four years. We saw how it was exploited in the "NotPetya" attack, we witnessed how it disabled more than 10 % of the nation's computers in a single day. And when that happen the world came together and quite rightly said, "This is not something that is acceptable." And in a similar way, we need to come together as an industry and we need to use our collective voice to say to every government about the world, that this kind of supply chain disruption is not something that any government or any company should be allowed to pursue.
And it's not the only example of the new issues that we need to work together to address. Think about what else that we have seen over the last year. We have lived through the biggest pandemic in a century and what did some people use that pandemic to do? To launch cyber attacks against hospitals, against the public health sector, against the World Health Organization, against the first line of critical responders... This too, should be off limits in a time of peace, just as it is for the use of conventional weapons in a time of war.
This is a set of the issues that we need to work with governments to address, to work with non-governmental organizations to address, but I think It starts with us, because if we don't use our voice to call on the governments of the world to hold to a higher standard, then I ask you this, "Who will?"
So I hope we'll come out of this CES and move forward with this as one of our Clarion calls for the future.
But it's not just about the rules of the road. Perhaps even more than that, the last month has shown us how we're all going to need to work together in new ways, how we're all going to need to change in some ways to protect the cybersecurity of the planet. Because when you look at the issues around SolarWinds and it's malware and how things spread, it's a powerful reminder that threat intelligence, data about cyber attacks, really exists in so many silos today. Silos within an individual government, silos within an individual company, silos in the public sector, silos in the private sector. And yet, it is so clear, that the only way to protect the future is to understand the threats of the present. And that requires that we share data in new ways.
I'm struck because in so many ways it was this very similar problem that contributed to 9/11, two decades ago, when the 9/11 commission came together and looked at its post mortem, it found that one of the biggest problems was that people did not share data, did not share threat information across the United States government. And what was true for one government then is true for all of us collectively today.
We need move as the 9/11 commission said from a culture where people only gave others information when they had a need to know. And in the words of that commission, changed the culture so that people feel a need to share. Not everything, of course, we must protect personal privacy, we must think about the appropriate division and roles between the public and private sectors. But these are the questions that we need to address in the year and the decade ahead. If the last month and the perspective from history teaches us anything, it's this, the best time to have a 9/11 commission is before the next 9/11. Let's learn from the past, let's imagine the future, but most importantly, let's put ourselves to work to take new steps collectively.
As we think back to "WarGames," I think there's another completely different aspect that's also really worth our thinking about. Because the other part of the movie was a story about humanity surrendering control to computers. That was the real threat that ultimately emerged as the film progressed. And in a very similar way, here too, we actually see the risk of science catching up with science fiction, of technology, outpacing our ability to exercise control. And so as we think about the decade ahead, as we think about AI, and all of the promise of artificial intelligence in so many ways, we have to think as well about the new guard rails that we need to create, so that humanity remains in control of our technology.
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I think it's really interesting to put this in the context of an even like CES. The news headlines are always about the new features that we as an industry have created. These kinds of exciting product innovations will always be the heart of CES. But increasingly, I think people around the world are looking at us. And they want to know not only about our heart, but about our soul.
And by that I mean this, people want to know what are the safeguards that we're building around technology, to protect against the perils that it can create. And we're seeing this so clearly in very concrete scenarios around artificial intelligence.
We see it for example around facial recognition. People appreciate the convenience that it provides to unlock a phone or a laptop, or on certain days to identify a missing child and reunite a family. But people also worry quite rightly, about the perils of facial recognition, about the risks that it can create for the protection of people's fundamental rights. And what's true for facial recognition increasingly is true for a variety of other technology scenarios as well.
For example, something like machine learning and its use in a way that can create the risks of bias and discrimination in a whole variety of different commercial settings. Or say, the very scenario that we say in "WarGames" itself. The risk that humanity will lose control of the weapons of war.
Indeed, we live in a decade where hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence can make possible. The very scenario that captivated President Reagan in 1983. Here too, we're all called on as an industry and as governments and indeed, as a planet, to ensure that humanity retains control of the computers that we create. These are all among the challenges that we're going to need to come together to address this year, and in each of the years that follow.
(21:20) As we start a new year, I think it's a time to think the road ahead. And I also think it's time to remember that there are so many challenges and reasons to be optimistic that if we come together and do work well, it can be a road that leads to a brighter future.
(21:40)Whenever I think about a big challenge I also find it helpful draw some inspiration, from some other successes of the past. And I think one of the successes that should speak to all of us, in this country around the world this month, and this year, it is a success in some messages that also came from the decade that gave birth to CES.
Because the 1960's were not only a decade of advances in great consumer technology, even more, they were advances that started with a very different goal in mind. A huge goal. A goal that an American president set for the United States in 1962, it was president John F. Kennedy. At a time when few thought it possible, he put a stake in the ground and said that the United States would go to the moon before the decade came to an end. And he did what we always need to do whenever we pursue a big goal. We first have to imagine that we can achieve it. He did it in a famous speech in September of 1962 at Rice University in Texas. He had some famous words that are worth drawing inspiration from even today. Take a look.
(23:03 - JFK）- "We choose to go to the moon, we choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard. Because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills. Because that challenges is one that we're willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win."
It's remarkable in hindsight to look back at that speech and just appreciate the sheer scale of ambition that was set by the president and pursued by a nation in a way that served the world.
But I think that the lessons that come out of that speech, and that journey are greater than just the importance of that ambition. There are two other things that in some ways are even more important, as we meet virtually in 2021. The first is this, when humanity finally first orbited the moon in December of 1968, it was terrible time. It had been a difficult year. It had been a year in the United States that had witnessed not just violence in the street, but the assassination of two of the country's great leaders, Martin Luther King and Robert F. Kennedy. It was a time when the days on planet earth were dominated by all of the divisions between us.
But what did people learn when they got to the moon?
What was really important was not the rocks that they would ultimately pick up when a lunar lander landed, a year later, it was the ability to look back at Earth itself, to see the planet that the astronauts had come from. And more than anything to realize this, that despite all of the differences that people discussed every day, there was also a common bond for everyone on planet Earth. That, I think, is a powerful lesson for all of us, as we create technology to serve the world, in January of 2021.
But there was one other aspect that I think in some ways was more prescient still. Because if you go back to John F. Kennedy's speech at Rice University in 1962, there is one slice of it, that he could have been providing not just to the people of his time but to the people of ours. And not just to the world, but to all of us in our industry in particular:
(25:53 - JFK) - "We set sail on this new sea, because there is new knowledge to be gained, and new rights to be won. And they must be won and used for the progress of all people. For space science, like nuclear science and all technology, has no conscience of its own. Whether it will become a force for good or ill depends on man."
(26:20) Almost five decades later, there are those four words that echo down the ages. "Technology has no conscience". It was true then, it is true today, it has been true in every era of technology. Technology has no conscience, but people do and we do.
And as an industry we must, we must exercise our conscience. For all of us as individuals, in companies and as an industry, every day when we go to work, we will decide whether technology is used for good or for ill. That is our opportunity. That is our challenge. But more than that, that is our responsibility, to ensure that the technology that we create serves the worlds.
